Record Low Temperatures in 2007 Do Not Disprove Global Climate Change
Dr. David Deming, geophysicist at the University of Oklahoma, has disproved global warming. His article, Year of Global Cooling, has taken the blogsphere by storm, and his compelling case against the climate change myth is just what many skeptical bloggers were waiting for. 2007 had an unremarkable hurricane season in North America. 200 people died from exposure to cold in Peru that year, and thousands more from respiratory illness. Buenos Aires had its only snowfall since 1918. Australia and New Zealand had protracted cool summers, and $ 1.42 billion was lost to frost in California. There were severe ice storms all across the American Midwest, very convincing. Until his article falls under any scrutiny.
All the evidence provided by Dr. Deming is anecdotal; no averages are given, no global trends. Even if it were true that 2007 was a cooler year by any standard of measure, it would not mean very much in the face of the strong warming trend over the past decades. Before presenting any counter evidence, let us pick apart his premise. First of all, although Peru is a tropical country, it has immense variation in altitude. A climate graph of Cusco, Peru (at an altitude of 3,400 m) shows that during the dry season sub-zero temperatures are not uncommon, and the numerous poor and homeless Peruvians are at risk of succumbing to the cold. Over 200 cold related deaths is expected. Furthermore, respiratory illness is not caused by cold temperatures, it's caused by infection, and Peru is a third world country. Tuberculosis and pneumonia are still dangerous diseases in those parts, that take many lives, regardless of environmental temperatures.
Although numerous records lows were made in 2007, that does not outweigh the fact then when his article was written, 2007 was the hottest year globally to date. Local records do not mean anywhere nearly as much scientifically as the accumulated data, or the averages and the patterns they show. Over the past 30 years, the average global temperature has increased by 0.18 degrees Celsius per year. Greenland has lost at least 15% (a conservative estimate) of its ice mass since 1970. The number of days in a year that Siberia is locked in the grip of permafrost has dropped by 40. The mass relocation of precipitation and drought is evident across the globe. Deming's claim that storms have not gotten stronger are simply false, with numerous record hurricane, typhoon, and tornado seasons worldwide. In the face of this evidence, a few dozen record lows in a few places is hardly relevant, and the meager evidence he supplies cannot possibly displace the mountain of data that corroborates the reality of global climate change.
David Matos-Magrass
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I agree with David's arguement that although that doctor claim 2007 as one of the coldest years, that does not point to a climate shift. Climate is weather patterns averaged over a hundred years, there are always a few outliers and 2007 may have been one of them. These are sensationalist claims made without any hard evidence to try to throw a monkey wrench into the mix to undermine the efforts of the scientist who prove there is global warming. At the end of the day the globe is warming but by how much humans effect this is still unknown.
ReplyDeletePosted by: Andrew Ryan
I think it is really very irresponsible of scientists to argue against global warming, because it is just the fuel that anti-global warming political groups need to enforce their cause and prevent any proactive political measures from being taken. We are in a global crisis: we are nearing a "point of no return" in the global warming issue, and even if drastic steps were taken immediately, it still might not be in time to prevent us from causing irreversible damage.
ReplyDeletePosted by Johanna Brophy